The world is experiencing a unique
population explosion. For thousands of years, numbers rose
slowly and even sometimes declined – due to disease. Then,
with better health care and
rising life expectancy,
the rate of
population increase (*1) started
to climb steadily. Since
the middle of the last century, numbers have been growing extremely
rapidly, and they (1) still are(2) today. By 2020(3),
the population of this small planet is expected to reach eight
billion, (4) over four times the number a century earlier.
However, it
is also predicted
that growth will start to slow
soon after 2020. We cannot be sure, but
numbers will probably
peak at approximately 9
billion(5) in about
2070. Following that,
(6) recent
predictions show a population decline.
This (7) is
already happening. Europe ’s population
has nearly stopped
growing. Similarly, growth has slowed
across North America, Russia and Eastern Europe, and it(8) is
also slowing in South America . Only Africa and
Asia are still showing rapid rises. The rate
of growth is falling even in these continents.
In Africa, for example, there(9) was
annual growth of 2.97%(10) between 1990
and 2000, whereas
estimated growth from 2000 to 2025 is 2.50%(11) annually.
The
main reasons for
this slow-down are economic
and educational. Traditionally, some children
were expected to die
young, and the rest (12) were
needed for the
family’s economic survival, especially if their parents became
unable to work.
Uneducated and badly paid, they(13) all had to work to help keep the family
alive.
Now, though, education and skills
training offer a rapid
route to good
pay and a good
lifestyle. It has therefore become sensible for today’s parents in many parts
of the world to have fewer children
and give them the best
possible start in life. (*2)
And
it is not
just their(14) children’s
future that many modern
mothers consider. With equal education for girls, they(15) now have skills that their(16) mothers
and grandmothers did
not. (17) They(18) can build
their own careers, (*3) and this(19) means that they(20) marry and have children later. It also means
that they(21) often choose to have smaller
families so that
they(22) can continue or return to their(23) careers.
The word ‘choose’ is very important
here. Modern methods of
birth control allow parents in many countries to decide
the size of their(24) families.
And their choice
is nearly always to limit family
size.
The slow-down in world population growth is
good news. However, we must prepare for the
shock of a much
larger
population than we already have.
Soon, there will be major new demands
on our natural resources,
including water, land and
energy. There will also
be major pressures on our
environment from pollution and waste, global
warming and, probably, climate change.
During this difficult period,(25) there will also be major tests for our human
intelligence and abilities. On the one hand, we may just go on in the old way(*4). We
can continue competing with each other for resources and
doing great damage to the environment while our world slides towards
disaster. On the
other hand, we can
see our new
global situation as an
opportunity finally to
work together for a
better future for all (26) We
have the possibility of choosing cooperation over conflict. The twentieth
century saw the worst wars in history. Could the twenty-first become one of
peace instead? The choice is ours.
