reading : the population peak

The world is experiencing a unique population explosion. For thousands of years, numbers  rose  slowly and  even  sometimes declined – due to disease. Then, with better health  care  and  rising  life  expectancy,  the rate  of  population  increase (*1)  started  to  climb steadily.  Since  the middle of the last century, numbers have been growing extremely rapidly, and they (1) still are(2)  today.  By  2020(3),  the  population  of  this  small planet is expected to reach eight billion, (4)  over four times the number a century earlier.

However,  it  is  also  predicted  that  growth will start to slow soon after 2020. We cannot be  sure,  but  numbers  will  probably  peak  at approximately   9   billion(5)    in   about   2070. Following  that, (6)   recent  predictions  show  a population decline.

This (7)   is   already   happening.   Europe’s  population   has   nearly   stopped   growing. Similarly,  growth  has slowed  across  North America, Russia and Eastern Europe, and it(8) is also slowing in South America. Only Africa and Asia are still showing rapid rises. The rate of growth is falling even in these continents.

 In Africa, for example, there(9)   was  annual  growth  of  2.97%(10)  between  1990  and  2000,  whereas  estimated growth from 2000 to 2025 is 2.50%(11)  annually.

The  main  reasons  for  this  slow-down  are economic   and   educational.   Traditionally, some  children  were expected  to  die  young, and  the  rest (12)  were  needed  for  the  family’s economic survival, especially if their parents  became  unable  to  work.  Uneducated  and badly paid, they(13)  all had to work to help keep the family alive. 

Now, though, education and skills training offer  a  rapid  route  to  good  pay  and  a  good lifestyle. It has therefore become sensible for today’s parents in many parts of the world to have  fewer  children  and  give  them  the  best possible start in life. (*2)

And  it  is  not  just  their(14)   children’s  future that  many  modern  mothers  consider.  With equal education for girls, they(15)  now have skills that  their(16)   mothers  and  grandmothers  did not. (17)   They(18)   can  build  their  own  careers, (*3)   and this(19)  means that they(20)  marry and have children later. It also means that they(21)  often choose to have   smaller   families   so   that   they(22)    can continue or return to their(23)  careers.

The word ‘choose’ is very important here. Modern   methods   of   birth   control   allow parents in many countries to decide the size of  their(24)   families.  And  their  choice  is  nearly always to limit family size.

 The slow-down in world population growth is good news. However, we must prepare for the  shock  of  a  much  larger  population  than we already have.

Soon, there will be major new demands on our  natural  resources,  including  water,  land and   energy.   There will   also   be   major pressures on our environment from pollution and  waste,  global  warming  and,  probably, climate change.

  During this difficult period,(25) there will also be major tests for our human intelligence and abilities. On the one hand, we may just go on in  the  old  way(*4).  We  can  continue  competing with each other for resources and doing great damage to the environment while our world slides  towards  disaster.  On  the  other  hand, we  can  see  our  new  global  situation  as  an opportunity  finally  to  work  together  for  a better future for all (26) We have the possibility of choosing cooperation over conflict. The twentieth century saw the worst wars in history. Could the twenty-first become one of peace instead? The choice is ours.